The Kenya avocado season faces weak demand, Middle East logistics issues, and Peru’s market dominance. Growers are urged to resist premature sales and wait for price recovery.
Kenya avocado season

Kenya’s avocado season has reached its midpoint, with the industry now entering a period of reduced output as harvesting shifts to the country’s higher-altitude growing regions. The industry continues to face logistical and commercial challenges, but the situation shows potential for improvement as soon as July, according to Anthony Ngugi, CEO of Mavuno Organics.
The grower says that the outlook for production is positive. “At the moment Sizes are 60 percent on the larger end, ranging from 12s and 24s up to 24s and 36s, with an average dry matter at 24 percent. The coming period, however, will be temporarily marked by a drop in volumes and a predominance of smaller sizes,” he adds.

A slow campaign since its inception

According to Ngugi, the export campaign is still struggling with an imbalance that goes back to the start of the season. He explains: “We’ve had to face many challenges. The heavy rains in January and February delayed fruit maturity evolution leading to a late start to the season. This significantly reduced our exports at a time when we had an opportunity, just before the arrival of Peru’s heavy harvest, for both conventional and organic volumes.”

Beyond weather conditions, Ngugi says that ongoing instability in the Middle East has thrown a wrench into Kenya’s export logistics. “Transit times are erratic due to the situation in the Middle East. A journey that should take 33 days now sometimes takes fourty eight. Congestion at the port of Jeddah has led not only to prolonged transit times but also to simultaneous surges of fruit hitting the market, followed by sudden shortages.”

“The route via the Cape of Good Hope takes about 42 days, but it’s more predictable,” Ngugi adds. “At Mavuno Organics, we’ve changed our approach: for the past two weeks, we’ve been combining the two routes.”

Saturated markets and weak demand

From a commercial perspective, Ngugi describes a market marked by oversupply. He explains: “Demand has been weak, both for organic and conventional fruits. Peru has a strong presence and dominates the European market. This isn’t just the case in Europe; India, too, which serves as an alternative market for Kenyan avocados, is experiencing an oversupply. Diversifying markets is not easy; managing the cold chain poses real challenges for long destinations, the grower continues.

A message to growers

Ngugi, however, believes the situation holds real potential for improvement. “We expect prices to rise from late July through October, when Peru pulls out of the market. This is accompanied by good news from the Middle East, although we can’t say for certain yet.”

The grower’s sharpest comments are directed at what he describes as misinformation circulating within the Kenyan industry. “We need to speak out, as some actors are taking advantage of the difficult situation facing growers and spreading despair about the market’s recovery, so that growers will sell as quickly as possible to the domestic processing industry. I urge Kenyan growers to resist pressure to sell prematurely. The fruit can be stored on the tree, and growers should be patient and not give in to fetch favorable prices in the months of July onward” he concludes.

By: Fresh Plaza

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