Kenya is preparing for a difficult agricultural season as drought and increasingly unpredictable weather patterns threaten maize production, but the government says the country has sufficient measures in place to prevent a major food shortage.

Kenya Food Security

Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe gave the assurance during a visit to Trans Nzoia County, where he assessed the impact of dry conditions on maize production and maize seed multiplication.

The CS said the government expects maize output to decline because of the drought but will use imports to bridge any emerging supply gap.

The government is looking to the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) region for additional maize supplies as it prepares for possible lower domestic production.

Kagwe was accompanied during the visit by Trans Nzoia Senator Allan Chesang, Kenya Seed Company Managing Director Sammy Kiplagat Chepsiror and other county and national government officials.

Drought threatens maize production

Trans Nzoia remains one of Kenya’s important maize-growing regions, making the condition of the crop and seed fields a significant concern as the country prepares for the next production cycle.

Kagwe acknowledged that prolonged dry conditions are likely to affect maize yields.

However, he said the government is already implementing measures to ensure that a decline in production does not translate into a national food crisis.

The government will monitor domestic stocks and supplement local production through imports where necessary.

The approach is intended to ensure that consumers continue to access maize and other essential food commodities even as farmers contend with unfavourable weather.

The CS said Kenya’s response to the current situation must take into account the changing nature of the country’s climate.

Kenya has sufficient maize seed stocks

While drought is expected to affect maize production, Kagwe said the country remains adequately supplied with maize seed for the coming planting season.

He estimated that between 25 and 30 per cent of the maize seed crop could be lost because of the dry conditions.

Despite the expected losses, he said available stocks would still be sufficient to support farmers during the next planting season.

The assurance is significant because a shortage of certified seed following a difficult season could compound the effects of drought by limiting farmers’ ability to return to production when favourable rains resume.

Maintaining adequate seed stocks will therefore remain an important part of Kenya’s food security strategy.

Government prepares for unpredictable weather

Kagwe said climate change is forcing the government to rethink how Kenya plans for agricultural production.

Weather patterns are becoming increasingly difficult to predict, creating new risks for farmers who depend heavily on rainfall.

He said the government will continue using forecasts and technical advice from the Kenya Meteorological Department to prepare for drought, El Niño events and other extreme weather conditions.

Rather than relying on a fixed agricultural plan, the government intends to adjust its response according to changing weather forecasts.

Kagwe said contingency plans are being prepared for both crop and livestock production to help farmers respond to extreme conditions.

This approach could become increasingly important as droughts, floods and irregular rainfall continue to affect agricultural production across different parts of the country.

Kenya may increase maize imports

With domestic maize production expected to decline, imports will form part of the government’s strategy to maintain adequate food supplies.

Kagwe said Kenya is considering supplies from the COMESA region to supplement local production.

The move is aimed at closing the gap between domestic production and consumption without allowing reduced harvests to translate into severe shortages.

For consumers, the availability of maize is particularly important because maize remains one of the country’s most important staple foods.

For farmers, however, increased imports can have mixed implications depending on market conditions and the timing and volume of imported grain.

The government will therefore need to balance food availability with the interests of local producers as it manages the expected production deficit.

Wheat and rice imports remain necessary

Maize is not the only food commodity where Kenya relies on external supplies.

Kagwe said the country will continue importing wheat and rice to bridge the gap between local production and national demand.

Kenya produces only a small proportion of the wheat it consumes and has historically depended heavily on imports.

Rice demand has also continued to grow, driven partly by population growth, urbanisation and changing dietary preferences among the country’s young population.

The increasing demand for rice presents both a food security challenge and an opportunity for farmers and investors to expand domestic production where production conditions allow.

Sugar production records major increase

The CS also highlighted developments in the sugar industry, saying Kenya has recorded a significant increase in sugar production.

According to Kagwe, output has doubled for the first time, raising the possibility that the country could significantly reduce its dependence on imported sugar and potentially eliminate the need for imports.

Higher domestic sugar production would reduce pressure on foreign exchange while creating opportunities for sugarcane farmers and local processors.

However, sustaining the increase will depend on continued investment in farm productivity, factory efficiency, timely payments to farmers and reliable markets for sugarcane.

What drought means for Kenyan farmers

The latest warning highlights the growing risks facing farmers as weather patterns become less predictable.

For crop farmers, drought can result in poor germination, reduced plant growth, lower yields and higher production costs.

Livestock farmers face their own challenges as pasture and water resources decline.

A prolonged dry period can also affect seed multiplication, as demonstrated by the expected losses in maize seed production in Trans Nzoia.

This makes early preparation critical.

Access to reliable weather information, drought-tolerant varieties, irrigation, water harvesting, proper livestock feeding and timely agricultural extension services can help farmers reduce exposure to weather-related losses.

Government plans to keep monitoring weather conditions

Kagwe said the government’s response will remain dynamic as weather conditions continue to change.

Authorities will continue monitoring forecasts and adjusting agricultural and food supply measures according to emerging risks.

The immediate priority is to ensure that Kenya has enough food and seed despite the anticipated reduction in maize production.

In the longer term, however, the country’s response will need to go beyond emergency food imports.

Increasing investment in irrigation, climate-smart agriculture, drought-tolerant crops, water storage, livestock resilience and agricultural insurance could help farmers withstand increasingly frequent weather shocks.

The current situation also reinforces the importance of strengthening domestic food production while maintaining strategic import arrangements for commodities where local supply cannot meet national demand.

Kenya food security faces a changing climate

Kenya’s food security will increasingly depend on the country’s ability to manage climate risks while maintaining adequate food production.

The government expects maize production to decline because of drought, but says maize imports will help fill the gap. At the same time, the country is expected to retain sufficient maize seed stocks despite anticipated losses in seed multiplication.

Kagwe’s assurance comes at a time when farmers are facing growing uncertainty over rainfall and production conditions.

The challenge now is to ensure that contingency measures translate into practical support for farmers and consumers.

For Kenya, food security cannot depend on favourable weather alone. It will require reliable seed systems, resilient farming technologies, efficient markets, strategic food reserves, climate information and timely government intervention.

The drought may reduce production this season, but the government’s ability to anticipate shortages and respond early will determine whether the country can maintain stable food supplies while protecting farmers from the worst effects of an increasingly unpredictable climate.

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